Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation - Revision history

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	<onlyinclude>'''Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)''' is a sequence of long period changes in the [[sea surface temperature]] of the North Atlantic Ocean, with cool and warm phases that may last for 60-80 years at a time and a difference in [[temperature]] of approximately 0.556°C between extremes.<ref name="RE1">"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation", Aoml.noaa.gov. [Online]. Available: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php. [Accessed: 21- May- 2016].</ref> These changes are natural in occurrence and have been happening for at least the last 1,000 years.<ref name=RE1/> Since the mid-1990s the world has been in a warm phase.<ref name=RE1/> </onlyinclude> The AMO is a [[Modes of climate variability\|natural form of climate variability]], explaining short and long phases in climate caused by [[Natural vs anthropogenic climate change\|natural, large scale features]]. Other [[modes of climate variability]] include the [[Northern Annular Mode]], [[Pacific Decadal Oscillation]], and the [[North Atlantic Oscillation]].		<onlyinclude>'''Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)''' is a sequence of long period changes in the [[sea surface temperature]] of the North Atlantic Ocean, with cool and warm phases that may last for 60-80 years at a time and a difference in [[temperature]] of approximately 0.556°C between extremes.<ref name="RE1">"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation", Aoml.noaa.gov. [Online]. Available: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php. [Accessed: 21- May- 2016].</ref> These changes are natural in occurrence and have been happening for at least the last 1,000 years.<ref name=RE1/> Since the mid-1990s the world has been in a warm phase.<ref name=RE1/> </onlyinclude> The AMO is a [[Modes of climate variability\|natural form of climate variability]], explaining short and long phases in climate caused by [[Natural vs anthropogenic climate change\|natural, large scale features]]. Other [[modes of climate variability]] include the [[Northern Annular Mode]], [[Pacific Decadal Oscillation]], and the [[North Atlantic Oscillation]].

	[[File:AMO_and_TCCounts-1880-2008_0.png\|thumb\|830px\|center\|Figure 1. Graph of AMO and tropical cyclone counts.<ref>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (July 22, 2016). ‘’AMO Modes’’ [Online]. Available: https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/AMO_and_TCCounts-1880-2008_0.png</ref>]]		[[File:AMO_and_TCCounts-1880-2008_0.png\|thumb\|830px\|center\|Figure 1. Graph of AMO and tropical cyclone counts.<ref>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (July 22, 2016). ‘’AMO Modes’’ [Online]. Available: https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/AMO_and_TCCounts-1880-2008_0.png</ref>]]

	The AMO impacts [[air temperature]]s and [[rainfall]] over much of the Northern Hemisphere, especially in North America and Europe. It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American [[drought]]s and is associated in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes. It also obscures and exaggerates the global increase in temperatures due to [[anthropogenic\|human]] induced [[global warming]].<ref name=RE1/> Recent research suggests that the AMO is related to the past occurrence of major droughts in the Midwest and the Southwest. When the AMO is in its warm phase, these droughts tend to be more frequent, severe, and prolonged.<ref name=RE1/> Two of the most severe droughts of the 20th century occurred during the positive AMO between 1925 and 1965: The Dustbowl of the 1930s and the 1950s drought.<ref name=RE1/> Sea surface temperatures have shown warm phases roughly during: 1860-1880 and 1930-1960<ref name=RE1/> and cool phases during 1905-1925 and 1970-1990.<ref name=RE1/>		The AMO impacts [[air temperature]]s and [[rainfall]] over much of the Northern Hemisphere, especially in North America and Europe. It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American [[drought]]s and is associated in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes. It also obscures and exaggerates the global increase in temperatures due to [[anthropogenic\|human]] induced [[global warming]].<ref name=RE1/> Recent research suggests that the AMO is related to the past occurrence of major droughts in the Midwest and the Southwest. When the AMO is in its warm phase, these droughts tend to be more frequent, severe, and prolonged.<ref name=RE1/> Two of the most severe droughts of the 20th century occurred during the positive AMO between 1925 and 1965: The Dustbowl of the 1930s, and the 1950s drought.<ref name=RE1/> Sea surface temperatures have shown warm phases roughly during: 1860-1880 and 1930-1960<ref name=RE1/> and cool phases during 1905-1925 and 1970-1990.<ref name=RE1/> Figure 1 above shows a graph of these trends.

	==AMO and Hurricanes==		==AMO and Hurricanes==

	During warm phases of the AMO, at least twice as many [[tropical storm]]s mature into severe [[hurricane]]s as during cool phases.<ref name=RE1/> Since the AMO switched to its warm phase around 1995, the particularly [[Hurricane strength \| strong hurricane]]s have become much more frequent. The frequency of weak category [[storm]]s, tropical storms, and weak hurricanes are largely unaffected by the AMO.<ref name=RE1/> However, the number of weak storms that mature into major hurricanes noticeably increase.<ref name=RE1/> Thus, the intensity is affected, specifically by increasing the frequency of major hurricanes. [[Ocean and atmosphere models]] that interact with each other show that the AMO cycle involves changes in the south to north circulation of the ocean.<ref name=RE1/> The warm Gulf Stream current off the east coast of the United States is part of the Atlantic overturning circulation. When the overturning circulation decreases, the North Atlantic temperatures become cooler.<ref name=RE1/> Currently, predicting when the AMO will switch is not applicable. Computer models, such as ones that predict [[El Nino \| El Niño]], are far from being able to do this.<ref name=RE1/> However, what is possible to do currently is to calculate the probability that a change in the AMO will occur within a given future time frame.<ref name=RE1/>		During warm phases of the AMO, at least ''twice'' as many [[tropical storm]]s mature into severe [[hurricane]]s compared to during cool phases.<ref name=RE1/> Since the AMO switched to its warm phase around 1995, the particularly [[Hurricane strength \|strong hurricane]]s have become much more frequent. The frequency of weak category [[storm]]s, tropical storms, and weak hurricanes are largely unaffected by the AMO.<ref name=RE1/> However, the number of weak storms that ''mature into major hurricanes'' noticeably increase.<ref name=RE1/> Thus, the '''intensity''' is affected, specifically by increasing the frequency of major hurricanes.

			[[Ocean and atmosphere models]] that interact with each other show that the AMO cycle involves changes in the south to north circulation of the ocean.<ref name="RE1" /> The warm Gulf Stream current off the east coast of the United States is part of the Atlantic overturning circulation. When the overturning circulation decreases, the North Atlantic temperatures become cooler.<ref name="RE1" /> Currently, predicting when the AMO will switch is not applicable. Computer models, such as ones that predict [[El Nino \|El Niño]], are far from being able to do this.<ref name="RE1" /> However, what is possible to do currently is to calculate the probability that a change in the AMO will occur within a given future time frame.<ref name="RE1" />

	==Climate Change and Hurricanes==		==Climate Change and Hurricanes==
	The present day model is that underlying currents in the Atlantic produce the temperature changes, but volcanic activity, airborne particles emitted by humans, and dust from Africa may contribute. In addition, we can’t yet predict when exactly the AMO will switch from warm to cold or vice versa.<ref name=RE2>"Climate change or natural variation? Understanding this ocean phenomenon will help us figure it out.", NRDC, 2015. [Online]. Available: https://www.nrdc.org/onearth/variation-variable. [Accessed: 22- May- 2016].</ref> Since a cool ocean surface absorbs more heat from the atmosphere than a warm ocean surface, the AMO can also either mask the impacts of [[anthropogenic]] [[climate change]] or make them appear worse than they actually are.<ref name=RE2/> Measurements of the AMO cycles have only been going on for the last 150 years, which is not long enough to conclude the causes. However, studies of [[tree ring]]s and [[ice core]]s have shown that oscillations similar to those by technology based observations, have been occurring for at least the last millennium.<ref name=RE1/> This is clearly longer than humans have been affecting climate, so it seems safe to conclude that the AMO is a natural climate oscillation.<ref name=RE1/>		The present day model is that underlying currents in the Atlantic ''produce'' the temperature changes; but volcanic activity, airborne particles emitted by humans, and dust from Africa may ''contribute''. In addition, we can’t yet predict when exactly the AMO will switch from warm to cold or vice versa.<ref name=RE2>"Climate change or natural variation? Understanding this ocean phenomenon will help us figure it out.", NRDC, 2015. [Online]. Available: https://www.nrdc.org/onearth/variation-variable. [Accessed: 22- May- 2016].</ref> Since a cool ocean surface absorbs more heat from the atmosphere than a warm ocean surface, the AMO can also either mask the impacts of [[anthropogenic]] [[climate change]] or make them appear worse than they actually are.<ref name=RE2/> Measurements of the AMO cycles have only been going on for the last 150 years, which is not long enough to conclude the causes. However, studies of [[tree ring]]s and [[ice core]]s have shown that oscillations similar to those by technology based observations, have been occurring for at least the last ''millennium''.<ref name=RE1/> This is clearly longer than humans have been affecting climate, so it seems safe to conclude that the AMO is a '''[[Natural vs anthropogenic climate change\|natural climate oscillation]]'''.<ref name=RE1/>

			== For Further Reading ==

			* [[Modes of climate variability]]
			* [[Natural vs anthropogenic climate change]]
			* [[Northern Annular Mode]]
			* [[Pacific Decadal Oscillation]]
			* [[North Atlantic Oscillation]]
			* Or explore a [[Special:Random\|random page]]

	==References==		==References==
	{{reflist}}		{{reflist}}
	[[Category:uploaded]]		[[Category:uploaded]]

Jmdonev: 1 revision imported

2017-08-29T01:46:44Z

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Jmdonev at 17:12, 14 July 2017

2017-07-14T17:12:25Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:12, 14 July 2017
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	[[Category:Done ~~2016~~-04-30]]		[[Category:Done 2017-07-01]]
	<onlyinclude>'''Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)''' is a sequence of long period changes in the [[sea surface temperature]] of the North Atlantic Ocean, with cool and warm phases that may last for 60-80 years at a time and a difference in [[temperature]] of approximately 0.556°C between extremes.<ref name="RE1">"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation", Aoml.noaa.gov. [Online]. Available: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php. [Accessed: 21- May- 2016].</ref> These changes are natural in occurrence and have been happening for at least the last 1,000 years.<ref name=RE1/> Since the mid-1990s the world has been in a warm phase.<ref name=RE1/> </onlyinclude> The AMO is a [[Modes of climate variability\|natural form of climate variability]], explaining short and long phases in climate caused by [[Natural vs anthropogenic climate change\|natural, large scale features]]. Other [[modes of climate variability]] include the [[Northern Annular Mode]], [[Pacific Decadal Oscillation]], and the [[North Atlantic Oscillation]].		<onlyinclude>'''Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)''' is a sequence of long period changes in the [[sea surface temperature]] of the North Atlantic Ocean, with cool and warm phases that may last for 60-80 years at a time and a difference in [[temperature]] of approximately 0.556°C between extremes.<ref name="RE1">"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation", Aoml.noaa.gov. [Online]. Available: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php. [Accessed: 21- May- 2016].</ref> These changes are natural in occurrence and have been happening for at least the last 1,000 years.<ref name=RE1/> Since the mid-1990s the world has been in a warm phase.<ref name=RE1/> </onlyinclude> The AMO is a [[Modes of climate variability\|natural form of climate variability]], explaining short and long phases in climate caused by [[Natural vs anthropogenic climate change\|natural, large scale features]]. Other [[modes of climate variability]] include the [[Northern Annular Mode]], [[Pacific Decadal Oscillation]], and the [[North Atlantic Oscillation]].

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	==AMO and Hurricanes==		==AMO and Hurricanes==

	During warm phases of the AMO, at least twice as many [[tropical storm]]s mature into severe [[hurricane]]s as during cool phases.<ref name=RE1/> Since the AMO switched to its warm phase around 1995, the particularly [[Hurricane strength \| strong hurricane]]s have become much more frequent. The frequency of weak category [[storm]]s, tropical storms, and weak hurricanes are largely unaffected by the AMO.<ref name=RE1/> However, the number of weak storms that mature into major hurricanes noticeably increase.<ref name=RE1/> Thus, the intensity is affected, specifically by increasing the frequency of major hurricanes. [[Ocean and atmosphere models]] that interact with each other show that the AMO cycle involves changes in the south to north circulation of the ocean.<ref name=RE1/> The warm Gulf Stream current off the east coast of the United States is part of the Atlantic overturning circulation. When the overturning circulation decreases, the North Atlantic temperatures become cooler.<ref name=RE1/> Currently, predicting when the AMO will switch is not applicable. Computer models, such as ones that predict [[El ~~nino~~ \| El Niño]], are far from being able to do this.<ref name=RE1/> However, what is possible to do currently is to calculate the probability that a change in the AMO will occur within a given future time frame.<ref name=RE1/>		During warm phases of the AMO, at least twice as many [[tropical storm]]s mature into severe [[hurricane]]s as during cool phases.<ref name=RE1/> Since the AMO switched to its warm phase around 1995, the particularly [[Hurricane strength \| strong hurricane]]s have become much more frequent. The frequency of weak category [[storm]]s, tropical storms, and weak hurricanes are largely unaffected by the AMO.<ref name=RE1/> However, the number of weak storms that mature into major hurricanes noticeably increase.<ref name=RE1/> Thus, the intensity is affected, specifically by increasing the frequency of major hurricanes. [[Ocean and atmosphere models]] that interact with each other show that the AMO cycle involves changes in the south to north circulation of the ocean.<ref name=RE1/> The warm Gulf Stream current off the east coast of the United States is part of the Atlantic overturning circulation. When the overturning circulation decreases, the North Atlantic temperatures become cooler.<ref name=RE1/> Currently, predicting when the AMO will switch is not applicable. Computer models, such as ones that predict [[El Nino \| El Niño]], are far from being able to do this.<ref name=RE1/> However, what is possible to do currently is to calculate the probability that a change in the AMO will occur within a given future time frame.<ref name=RE1/>

	==Climate Change and Hurricanes==		==Climate Change and Hurricanes==
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	==References==		==References==
	{{reflist}}		{{reflist}}
			[[Category:uploaded]]

Jmdonev: 1 revision imported: From the summer

2016-09-17T22:29:31Z

1 revision imported: From the summer

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Jmdonev at 21:32, 1 August 2016

2016-08-01T21:32:06Z

New page

[[Category:Done 2016-04-30]]
<onlyinclude>'''Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)''' is a sequence of long period changes in the [[sea surface temperature]] of the North Atlantic Ocean, with cool and warm phases that may last for 60-80 years at a time and a difference in [[temperature]] of approximately 0.556°C between extremes.<ref name="RE1">"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation", Aoml.noaa.gov. [Online]. Available: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php. [Accessed: 21- May- 2016].</ref> These changes are natural in occurrence and have been happening for at least the last 1,000 years.<ref name=RE1/> Since the mid-1990s the world has been in a warm phase.<ref name=RE1/> </onlyinclude> The AMO is a [[Modes of climate variability|natural form of climate variability]], explaining short and long phases in climate caused by [[Natural vs anthropogenic climate change|natural, large scale features]]. Other [[modes of climate variability]] include the [[Northern Annular Mode]], [[Pacific Decadal Oscillation]], and the [[North Atlantic Oscillation]].

[[File:AMO_and_TCCounts-1880-2008_0.png|thumb|830px|center|Figure 1. Graph of AMO and tropical cyclone counts.<ref>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (July 22, 2016). ‘’AMO Modes’’ [Online]. Available: https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/AMO_and_TCCounts-1880-2008_0.png</ref>]]

The AMO impacts [[air temperature]]s and [[rainfall]] over much of the Northern Hemisphere, especially in North America and Europe. It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American [[drought]]s and is associated in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes. It also obscures and exaggerates the global increase in temperatures due to [[anthropogenic|human]] induced [[global warming]].<ref name=RE1/> Recent research suggests that the AMO is related to the past occurrence of major droughts in the Midwest and the Southwest. When the AMO is in its warm phase, these droughts tend to be more frequent, severe, and prolonged.<ref name=RE1/> Two of the most severe droughts of the 20th century occurred during the positive AMO between 1925 and 1965: The Dustbowl of the 1930s and the 1950s drought.<ref name=RE1/> Sea surface temperatures have shown warm phases roughly during: 1860-1880 and 1930-1960<ref name=RE1/> and cool phases during 1905-1925 and 1970-1990.<ref name=RE1/>

==AMO and Hurricanes==

During warm phases of the AMO, at least twice as many [[tropical storm]]s mature into severe [[hurricane]]s as during cool phases.<ref name=RE1/> Since the AMO switched to its warm phase around 1995, the particularly [[Hurricane strength | strong hurricane]]s have become much more frequent. The frequency of weak category [[storm]]s, tropical storms, and weak hurricanes are largely unaffected by the AMO.<ref name=RE1/> However, the number of weak storms that mature into major hurricanes noticeably increase.<ref name=RE1/> Thus, the intensity is affected, specifically by increasing the frequency of major hurricanes. [[Ocean and atmosphere models]] that interact with each other show that the AMO cycle involves changes in the south to north circulation of the ocean.<ref name=RE1/> The warm Gulf Stream current off the east coast of the United States is part of the Atlantic overturning circulation. When the overturning circulation decreases, the North Atlantic temperatures become cooler.<ref name=RE1/> Currently, predicting when the AMO will switch is not applicable. Computer models, such as ones that predict [[El nino | El Niño]], are far from being able to do this.<ref name=RE1/> However, what is possible to do currently is to calculate the probability that a change in the AMO will occur within a given future time frame.<ref name=RE1/>

==Climate Change and Hurricanes==
The present day model is that underlying currents in the Atlantic produce the temperature changes, but volcanic activity, airborne particles emitted by humans, and dust from Africa may contribute. In addition, we can’t yet predict when exactly the AMO will switch from warm to cold or vice versa.<ref name=RE2>"Climate change or natural variation? Understanding this ocean phenomenon will help us figure it out.", NRDC, 2015. [Online]. Available: https://www.nrdc.org/onearth/variation-variable. [Accessed: 22- May- 2016].</ref> Since a cool ocean surface absorbs more heat from the atmosphere than a warm ocean surface, the AMO can also either mask the impacts of [[anthropogenic]] [[climate change]] or make them appear worse than they actually are.<ref name=RE2/> Measurements of the AMO cycles have only been going on for the last 150 years, which is not long enough to conclude the causes. However, studies of [[tree ring]]s and [[ice core]]s have shown that oscillations similar to those by technology based observations, have been occurring for at least the last millennium.<ref name=RE1/> This is clearly longer than humans have been affecting climate, so it seems safe to conclude that the AMO is a natural climate oscillation.<ref name=RE1/>

==References==
{{reflist}}