Black swan theory - Revision history

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	[[Category:Done ~~2018~~-07-20]]		[[Category:Done 2026-06-01]]
	<onlyinclude>The '''Black swan theory''', postulated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is used to describe the impact of events that come as a surprise in societal aspects. The event is unprecedented at a particular point in time until it happens.</onlyinclude><ref name="blackswan"/> The theory is a combination of mathematical and philosophical reasoning to explain and describe the randomness of uncertainty.		<onlyinclude>The '''Black swan theory''', postulated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is used to describe the impact of events that come as a surprise in societal aspects. The event is unprecedented at a particular point in time until it happens.</onlyinclude><ref name="blackswan"/> The theory is a combination of mathematical and philosophical reasoning to explain and describe the randomness of uncertainty. The event generally has a major effect or is shocking in nature. This spurs interest from affected or concerned groups to make changes to current practices in order to promote positive events and avoid negative events. Black swan theory is closely related to [[beyond design basis accident]]s and are important in considering the long term safety of people living near [[power plant]]s of various types.
	The event generally has a major effect or is shocking in nature. This spurs interest from affected or concerned groups to make changes to current practices in order to promote positive events and avoid negative events. Black swan theory is closely related to [[beyond design basis accident]]s and are important in considering the long term safety of people living near [[power plant]]s of various types.

	The story behind the theory: In the 18th century, it was common western belief that all swans are white. This was based on all observations made of swans to date. In 1697, Willem de Vlamingh, a Dutch explorer discovered black swans in Australia. This came as a surprise, and resulted in profound changes in the scientific history of ecology and zoology.<ref name="blackswan">“Black Swan.” Internet: http://blackswanevents.org/?page_id=26, [Apr. 04, 2014]</ref> Hence even though black swans exist, they are rare in nature.		The story behind the theory: In the 18th century, it was common western belief that all swans are white. This was based on all observations made of swans to date. In 1697, Willem de Vlamingh, a Dutch explorer discovered black swans in Australia. This came as a surprise, and resulted in profound changes in the scientific history of ecology and zoology.<ref name="blackswan">“Black Swan.” Internet: http://blackswanevents.org/?page_id=26, [Apr. 04, 2014]</ref> Hence even though black swans exist, they are rare in nature.
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	'''Question 1''': Why do rare events effect history, science, finance and technology unreasonably?		'''Question 1''': Why do rare events effect history, science, finance and technology unreasonably?
	*Answer 1: They occur with low frequency, hence these events are not treated with high regard in realms where hypotheses are proven by highly frequent observations.		*Answer 1: They occur with low frequency, hence these events are not treated with high regard in realms where hypotheses are proven by highly frequent observations.


	'''Question 2''': Why are scientific methods insufficient at predicting these rare events?		'''Question 2''': Why are scientific methods insufficient at predicting these rare events?
	*Answer 2: Black swan events can only be effectively predicted and prepared for by mathematical and philosophical reasoning. Because scientific methods show that if events have a low frequency of occurrence they are disregarded.		*Answer 2: Black swan events can only be effectively predicted and prepared for by mathematical and philosophical reasoning. Because scientific methods show that if events have a low frequency of occurrence they are disregarded.


	'''Question 3''': Why are people unaware of the sizeable role rare events play in history?		'''Question 3''': Why are people unaware of the sizeable role rare events play in history?
	*Answer 3: Low frequency events, unless catastrophic, are rarely given high priority in historical records.		*Answer 3: Low frequency events, unless catastrophic, are rarely given high priority in historical records.



	The theory has three properties:		The theory has three properties:

	'''1) ~~Rarity~~'''		'''1) Unpredictability'''
	*The event is a surprise		*The event is a surprise


	'''2) Extreme impact'''		'''2) Extreme impact'''
	*The event has major impact		*The event has major impact


	'''3) Retrospective predictability'''		'''3) Retrospective predictability'''
	*Looking back, the event could have been expected to take place		*Looking back, the event could have been expected to take place


	{\| class="wikitable"		{\| class="wikitable"
			\|+
			!Example
			!Rarity
			!Extreme Impact
			!Retrospective Predictability
	\|-		\|-
	~~! Example !! Rarity !! Extreme Impact !! Retrospective Predictability~~		\|Banqiao Dam, China, 1975
			\|1975 Flood with record rainfall of 189.5 mm per hour and 1060 mm per day, exceeding the average annual precipitation of about 800 mm <ref name="dam">“Banqiao Dam.” Internet: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banqiao_Dam, [Apr. 04, 2014].</ref>
			\|Dam failures resulted in roughly 171,000 deaths and 18 GW of power of loss <ref name="dam" />
			\|The accident could have been mitigated had original safety features been installed during initial construction of the dam.
	\|-		\|-
	\| ~~Banqiao Dam~~, ~~China 1975 \|\| 1975 Flood with record rainfall~~ of ~~189.5 mm per hour and 1060 mm per day~~, ~~exceeding~~ the ~~average annual precipitation~~ of ~~about 800 mm~~ <ref name="~~dam~~">~~“Banqiao Dam~~.” Internet: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/~~Banqiao_Dam~~, [Apr. 04, 2014].</ref> \|~~\| Dam failures~~ resulted in ~~roughly 171,000~~ deaths and ~~18 GW of power of loss~~ <ref name="~~dam~~"/>\|\| The ~~accident~~ could have been ~~mitigated~~ had ~~original safety features been installed during initial construction of~~ the ~~dam~~.		\|British Petroleum Oil Spill, Gulf of Mexico, 2010
			\|An explosion at BP's Deep Water Horizon oil rig due to methane leakage resulted in a oil gusher which flowed for 87 days into the Gulf of Mexico <ref name="bp">“Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.” Internet: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill, [Apr. 04, 2014].</ref>
			\|Largest accidental marine oil spill in history that resulted in 11 deaths and immeasurable environmental damage <ref name="bp" />
			\|The impact could have been minimized had BP repaired known defects on the rig such as cracking cement on the well.
	\|-		\|-
	\| ~~British Petroleum Oil Spill~~, ~~Gulf of Mexico 2010~~ \|~~\| An explosion at BP's Deep Water Horizon oil rig due to methane leakage resulted~~ in ~~a oil gusher which flowed for 87 days into the Gulf of Mexico~~ <ref name="bp">~~“Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill~~.” ~~Internet~~: ~~http~~://~~en.wikipedia~~.org/~~wiki~~/~~Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill, [Apr. 04, 2014].~~</ref>\|~~\| Largest accidental marine oil spill in history that resulted in 11 deaths~~ and ~~immeasurable environmental damage~~ <ref name="bp"/>\|~~\| The impact could have been minimized had BP repaired known defects on~~ the ~~rig such as cracking cement on the well.~~		\|Fukushima Boiling Water Reactor Explosion, 2011
			\|A 9.0 magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunami struck Japan, flooding the Fukushima Daiichi power plant and disabling backup cooling systems, resulting in core meltdowns and hydrogen explosions<ref name=":0">“Fukushima Daiichi Accident - World Nuclear Association.” Accessed: May 21, 2026. [Online]. Available: <nowiki>https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident</nowiki></ref>
			\|The disaster caused reactor meltdowns, evacuation of over 100,000 residents, and the shutdown of much of Japan’s nuclear power generation<ref name=":0" />
			\|Investigations later showed the plant’s seawall and backup generators were not adequately protected against large tsunamis (15 meters)<ref name=":0" />
	\|}		\|}

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	*[[Dam failures]]		*[[Dam failures]]
	*[[Chernobyl nuclear accident]]		*[[Chernobyl nuclear accident]]
	*[[Carbon capture and storage]]
	*[[Extreme weather events]]		*[[Extreme weather events]]
	*[[Beyond design basis accident]]		*[[Beyond design basis accident]]

Jmdonev: 1 revision imported

2018-07-21T01:13:05Z

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Jmdonev at 20:20, 19 July 2018

2018-07-19T20:20:30Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:20, 19 July 2018
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	[[Category:Done ~~2015~~-02-~~15]]~~		[[Category:Done 2018-07-20]]
	~~[[Category:Needs citations~~]]		<onlyinclude>The '''Black swan theory''', postulated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is used to describe the impact of events that come as a surprise in societal aspects. The event is unprecedented at a particular point in time until it happens.</onlyinclude><ref name="blackswan"/> The theory is a combination of mathematical and philosophical reasoning to explain and describe the randomness of uncertainty.
	<onlyinclude>The '''Black swan theory''', postulated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is used to describe the impact of events that come as a surprise in societal aspects. The event is unprecedented at a particular point in time until it happens.</onlyinclude>The theory is a combination of mathematical and philosophical reasoning to explain and describe the randomness of uncertainty.		The event generally has a major effect or is shocking in nature. This spurs interest from affected or concerned groups to make changes to current practices in order to promote positive events and avoid negative events. Black swan theory is closely related to [[beyond design basis accident]]s and are important in considering the long term safety of people living near [[power plant]]s of various types.
	The event generally has a major effect or is shocking in nature. This spurs interest from ~~effected~~ or concerned groups to make changes to current practices in order to promote positive events and avoid negative events. Black swan theory is closely related to [[beyond design basis accident]]s and are important in considering the long term safety of people living near [[power plant]]s of various types.

	The story behind the theory: In the 18th century, it was common western belief that all swans are white. This was based on all observations made of swans to date. In 1697, Willem de Vlamingh, a Dutch explorer discovered black swans in Australia. This came as a surprise, and resulted in profound changes in the scientific history of ecology and zoology.<ref name="blackswan">“Black Swan.” Internet: http://blackswanevents.org/?page_id=26, [Apr. 04, 2014]</ref> Hence even though black swans exist, they are rare in nature.		The story behind the theory: In the 18th century, it was common western belief that all swans are white. This was based on all observations made of swans to date. In 1697, Willem de Vlamingh, a Dutch explorer discovered black swans in Australia. This came as a surprise, and resulted in profound changes in the scientific history of ecology and zoology.<ref name="blackswan">“Black Swan.” Internet: http://blackswanevents.org/?page_id=26, [Apr. 04, 2014]</ref> Hence even though black swans exist, they are rare in nature.
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	The theory was developed to explain 3 major questions:		The theory was developed to explain 3 major questions:

	'''Question 1''': Why do rare events effect history, science, finance and technology unreasonably?		'''Question 1''': Why do rare events effect history, science, finance and technology unreasonably?

	*Answer 1: They occur with low frequency, hence these events are not treated with high regard in realms where hypotheses are proven by highly frequent observations.		*Answer 1: They occur with low frequency, hence these events are not treated with high regard in realms where hypotheses are proven by highly frequent observations.

	~~'''Question 2''': Why scientific methods are insufficient at predicting these rare events?~~

	*Answer 2: Black swan events can only be effectively predicted and prepared for by mathematical and philosophical reasoning. Because scientific methods show that events have a low frequency of occurrence they are disregarded.		'''Question 2''': Why are scientific methods insufficient at predicting these rare events?
			*Answer 2: Black swan events can only be effectively predicted and prepared for by mathematical and philosophical reasoning. Because scientific methods show that if events have a low frequency of occurrence they are disregarded.

	~~'''Question 3''': Why people are unaware of the sizeable role rare events play in history?~~

			'''Question 3''': Why are people unaware of the sizeable role rare events play in history?
	*Answer 3: Low frequency events, unless catastrophic, are rarely given high priority in historical records.		*Answer 3: Low frequency events, unless catastrophic, are rarely given high priority in historical records.


	The theory has three properties:		The theory has three properties:
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	'''1) Rarity'''		'''1) Rarity'''
	*The event is a surprise		*The event is a surprise


	'''2) Extreme impact'''		'''2) Extreme impact'''
	*The event has major impact		*The event has major impact


	'''3) Retrospective predictability'''		'''3) Retrospective predictability'''
	*Looking back, the event could have been expected to take place		*Looking back, the event could have been expected to take place


	{\| class="wikitable"		{\| class="wikitable"
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	\|}		\|}

			==For Further Reading==
			*[[Fukushima nuclear accident]]
			*[[Dam failures]]
			*[[Chernobyl nuclear accident]]
			*[[Carbon capture and storage]]
			*[[Extreme weather events]]
			*[[Beyond design basis accident]]
			*Or explore a [[Special:Random\|random page]]
	==References==		==References==
	{{reflist}}		{{reflist}}
	[[Category:Uploaded]]		[[Category:Uploaded]]

J.williams: 1 revision imported

2015-08-26T21:30:51Z

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J.williams at 16:51, 12 August 2015

2015-08-12T16:51:31Z

New page

[[Category:Done 2015-02-15]]
[[Category:Needs citations]]
<onlyinclude>The '''Black swan theory''', postulated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is used to describe the impact of events that come as a surprise in societal aspects. The event is unprecedented at a particular point in time until it happens.</onlyinclude>The theory is a combination of mathematical and philosophical reasoning to explain and describe the randomness of uncertainty.
The event generally has a major effect or is shocking in nature. This spurs interest from effected or concerned groups to make changes to current practices in order to promote positive events and avoid negative events. Black swan theory is closely related to [[beyond design basis accident]]s and are important in considering the long term safety of people living near [[power plant]]s of various types.

The story behind the theory: In the 18th century, it was common western belief that all swans are white. This was based on all observations made of swans to date. In 1697, Willem de Vlamingh, a Dutch explorer discovered black swans in Australia. This came as a surprise, and resulted in profound changes in the scientific history of ecology and zoology.<ref name="blackswan">“Black Swan.” Internet: http://blackswanevents.org/?page_id=26, [Apr. 04, 2014]</ref> Hence even though black swans exist, they are rare in nature.

The theory was developed to explain 3 major questions:

'''Question 1''': Why do rare events effect history, science, finance and technology unreasonably?

*Answer 1: They occur with low frequency, hence these events are not treated with high regard in realms where hypotheses are proven by highly frequent observations.

'''Question 2''': Why scientific methods are insufficient at predicting these rare events?

*Answer 2: Black swan events can only be effectively predicted and prepared for by mathematical and philosophical reasoning. Because scientific methods show that events have a low frequency of occurrence they are disregarded.

'''Question 3''': Why people are unaware of the sizeable role rare events play in history?

*Answer 3: Low frequency events, unless catastrophic, are rarely given high priority in historical records.

The theory has three properties:

'''1) Rarity'''
*The event is a surprise

'''2) Extreme impact'''
*The event has major impact

'''3) Retrospective predictability'''
*Looking back, the event could have been expected to take place

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Example !! Rarity !! Extreme Impact !! Retrospective Predictability
|-
| Banqiao Dam, China 1975 || 1975 Flood with record rainfall of 189.5 mm per hour and 1060 mm per day, exceeding the average annual precipitation of about 800 mm <ref name="dam">“Banqiao Dam.” Internet: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banqiao_Dam, [Apr. 04, 2014].</ref> || Dam failures resulted in roughly 171,000 deaths and 18 GW of power of loss <ref name="dam"/>|| The accident could have been mitigated had original safety features been installed during initial construction of the dam.
|-
| British Petroleum Oil Spill, Gulf of Mexico 2010 || An explosion at BP's Deep Water Horizon oil rig due to methane leakage resulted in a oil gusher which flowed for 87 days into the Gulf of Mexico <ref name="bp">“Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.” Internet: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill, [Apr. 04, 2014].</ref>|| Largest accidental marine oil spill in history that resulted in 11 deaths and immeasurable environmental damage <ref name="bp"/>|| The impact could have been minimized had BP repaired known defects on the rig such as cracking cement on the well.
|}

==References==
{{reflist}}
[[Category:Uploaded]]