Emission scenario - Revision history

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	[[Category:Done ~~2016~~-04-30]]		[[Category:Done 2026-07-01]]
	<onlyinclude>'''Emission scenarios''' are possible pathways that society might take in the the [[emission]] of [[greenhouse gases]] in the future. It is hard to predict what will occur in society in the next 5 years, let alone to predict the next 100. Society could continue to [[pollution\|pollute]] heavily, or it could switch to minimal [[emissions]] in harnessing its [[energy]], or anything in between.</onlyinclude>		<onlyinclude>'''Emission scenarios''' are possible pathways that society might take in the the [[emission]] of [[greenhouse gases]] in the future. It is hard to predict what will occur in society in the next 5 years, let alone to predict the next 100. Society could continue to [[pollution\|pollute]] heavily, or it could switch to minimal [[emissions]] in harnessing its [[energy]], or anything in between.</onlyinclude>

	By making assumptions on how society will develop, such as how the world population will grow and how world economies interact, it is possible to estimate the world's future [[emissions]] and their effects on the [[climate]]. This is known as the ~~Storyline~~ Approach.		By making assumptions on how society will develop, such as how the world population will grow and how world economies interact, it is possible to estimate the world's future [[emissions]] and their effects on the [[climate]]. This is known as the Story-line Approach.

	Another method is to simply assume emissions at some point in the future, and then see what steps society might need to take to get there. This approach is known as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), and will be discussed alongside the ~~Storyline~~ Approach.		Another method is to simply assume emissions at some point in the future, and then see what steps society might need to take to get there. This approach is known as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), and will be discussed alongside the Story-line Approach.

	==What determines different emission scenarios?==		==What determines different emission scenarios?==
	~~:''[[driving forces for emission scenarios\|main article]]''~~		The determining factors for emission scenarios are known as '''driving forces'''. The main forces that "drive" society's future emissions are:<ref name="ipcc1">IPCC. (Accessed June 27, 2026). "IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios" [Online], Available: https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf</ref>

	The determining factors for emission scenarios are known as '''driving forces'''. The main forces that "drive" society's future emissions are:<ref name=ipcc1>IPCC. (Accessed ~~May 9~~, ~~2016~~). "IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios" [Online], Available: https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf</ref>

	*'''Population growth'''		*'''Population growth'''
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	*'''Land use change'''		*'''Land use change'''

	Each of the driving forces affect how society emits [[pollutant]]s, specifically greenhouse gases. If the population grows drastically, GHG emissions are expected to increase with it. If technology develops such that [[electrical generation]] becomes more [[efficiency\|efficient]], then GHG emissions may be able to decrease. There are many combinations of these driving forces that can occur, thus leading to various scenarios.		Each of the driving forces affect how society emits [[pollutant]]s, specifically [[greenhouse gases]] (GHGs). If the population grows drastically, GHG emissions are expected to increase with it. If technology develops such that [[electrical generation]] becomes more [[efficiency\|efficient]], then GHG emissions may be able to decrease. There are many combinations of these driving forces that can occur, thus leading to various scenarios.

	Visit ''[[driving forces for emission scenarios]]'' for more information.		Visit ''[[driving forces for emission scenarios]]'' for more information.
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	==Emission scenarios==		==Emission scenarios==

	Below is a summary of ~~the~~ two emission scenario methods taken by the [[IPCC]] in past reports. The video at the bottom of the page discusses each in more detail, along with images and results from the different approaches. Effects of the scenarios on the climate are discussed [[climate scenario\|here]].		Below is a summary of two emission scenario methods taken by the [[IPCC]] in past reports. The video at the bottom of the page discusses each in more detail, along with images and results from the different approaches. Effects of the scenarios on the climate are discussed [[climate scenario\|here]].

	===~~Storyline~~ Approach===		===Story-line Approach===
	The scenarios developed by the IPCC in the ''[https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pd Special Report on Emissions Scenarios]'' ('''SRES''') ~~are~~ a result of four different '''~~storylines~~''', titled A1, A2, B1, and B2. Each ~~storyline~~ assumes a distinctly different direction for future developments of driving forces. From these assumptions, each ~~storyline~~ differs in increasingly irreversible ways resulting in drastically different end scenarios.<ref name=ipcc1/>		The scenarios developed by the IPCC in the ''[https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pd Special Report on Emissions Scenarios]'' ('''SRES''') were a result of four different '''story-lines''', titled A1, A2, B1, and B2. Each story-line assumes a distinctly different direction for future developments of driving forces. From these assumptions, each story-line differs in increasingly irreversible ways resulting in drastically different end scenarios.<ref name=ipcc1/> More recently, the IPCC has used Representative Concentration Pathways.

	The four scenarios are as follows:		The four scenarios are as follows:

	#'''A1 (Global/Economic)''' - This ~~storyline~~ describes a future world of rapid economic growth, with a global population that peaks in the mid 2000's and declines afterwards. The A1 ~~storyline~~ is also split into 3 further groups: A1FI follows a "[[business as usual]]" fossil fuel intensive future, A1B is a balanced energy picture, and A1T is a non-fossil fuel future.		#'''A1 (Global/Economic)''' - This story-line describes a future world of rapid economic growth, with a global population that peaks in the mid 2000's and declines afterwards. The A1 story-line is also split into 3 further groups: A1FI follows a "[[business as usual]]" fossil fuel intensive future, A1B is a balanced energy picture, and A1T is a non-fossil fuel future.
	#'''A2 (Local/Economic)''' - The A2 ~~storyline~~ follows a more conservative economic world, where economic growth is more limited to smaller regions of the world. Technological change is slower in this ~~storyline~~, while high fertility rates result in a booming population.		#'''A2 (Local/Economic)''' - The A2 story-line follows a more conservative economic world, where economic growth is more limited to smaller regions of the world. Technological change is slower in this story-line, while high fertility rates result in a booming population.
	#'''B1 (Global/Environmental)''' - The B1 ~~storyline~~ assumes the same population growth as the A1 ~~storyline~~. It differs in that it has less of a material intense society, and focuses more on clean and efficient technologies. It takes emphasis on ''global'' solutions to economic, social and environmental [[sustainability]], but with no additional climate incentives.		#'''B1 (Global/Environmental)''' - The B1 story-line assumes the same population growth as the A1 story-line. It differs in that it has less of a material intense society, and focuses more on clean and efficient technologies. It takes emphasis on ''global'' solutions to economic, social and environmental [[sustainability]], but with no additional climate incentives.
	#'''B2 (Local/Environmental)''' - The B2 ~~storyline~~ focuses on a society that looks for local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population in accordance with the UN prediction, with intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid technological change compared to the B1 and A1 ~~storylines~~. It focuses on local and regional solutions to environmental protection and social equity.		#'''B2 (Local/Environmental)''' - The B2 story-line focuses on a society that looks for local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population in accordance with the UN prediction, with intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid technological change compared to the B1 and A1 story-lines. It focuses on local and regional solutions to environmental protection and social equity.

	===Representative Concentration Pathways===		===Representative Concentration Pathways===

	Representative Concentration Pathways were adopted in the [http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf#27 IPCC's 5th assessment report]. As mentioned before, RCPs assume end points of emissions giving a clear pathway for emissions to take in the future. How these endpoints are reached is another story, and could depend on a wide variety of driving force combinations. The year that is defined up to is 2100, chosen to give a wide range of possible outcomes.<ref name=rcp>IPCC. (Accessed June 1, 2016). ''Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)'' [Online], Available: http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/ar5_scenario_process/RCPs.html</ref>		Representative Concentration Pathways were adopted in the [http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf#27 IPCC's 5th assessment report] (in contrast to the earlier story-line scenarios). As mentioned before, RCPs assume end points of emissions giving a clear pathway for emissions to take in the future. How these endpoints are reached is another story, and could depend on a wide variety of driving force combinations. The year that is defined up to is 2100, chosen to give a wide range of possible outcomes.<ref name=rcp>IPCC. (Accessed June 1, 2016). ''Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)'' [Online], Available: http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/ar5_scenario_process/RCPs.html</ref>

	Four pathways are set, defined by endpoint values for [[radiative forcing]] by the year 2100. The lowest emission scenario peaks in emissions by 2050, declining afterwards, therefore called RCP3PD (Peak/Decline). The highest emission scenario on the other hand is called RCP8.5, as it reaches 8.5 [[watt\|W]]/[[meter\|m]]<sup>2</sup> by the year 2100.<Ref name=rcp/>		Four pathways are set, defined by endpoint values for [[radiative forcing]] by the year 2100. The lowest emission scenario peaks in emissions by 2050, declining afterwards, therefore called RCP3PD (Peak/Decline). The highest emission scenario on the other hand is called RCP8.5, as it reaches 8.5 [[watt\|W]]/[[meter\|m]]<sup>2</sup> by the year 2100.<Ref name=rcp/>

	In the video below Professor of Instruction [https://www.eoas.ubc.ca/about/faculty/S.Harris.html Dr. Harris]<ref>This video is used with the gracious permission of Dr. S. Harris in a private communication with Jason Donev on 2016-6-12.</ref> explains the scenarios resulting from these ~~storylines~~ and representative concentration pathways. Implications of each are discussed along with them, giving a nice summary of the two methods.		In the video below Professor of Instruction [https://www.eoas.ubc.ca/about/faculty/S.Harris.html Dr. Harris]<ref>This video is used with the gracious permission of Dr. S. Harris in a private communication with Jason Donev on 2016-6-12.</ref> explains the scenarios resulting from these story-lines and representative concentration pathways. Implications of each are discussed along with them, giving a nice summary of the two methods.

	<html>		<html>
	<iframe width="816" height="459" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TOEEbHn_es4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>		<iframe width="816" height="459" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TOEEbHn_es4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
	</html>		</html>

			== For Further Reading ==

			* [[Driving forces for emission scenarios]]
			* [[Emissions]]
			* [[Pollutant]]
			* [[Sustainability]]
			* Or explore a [[Special:Random\|random page]]

	==References==		==References==
	{{Reflist}}		{{Reflist}}
			[[Category: Uploaded]]

Jmdonev: 1 revision imported: From the summer

2016-09-17T22:29:21Z

1 revision imported: From the summer

← Older revision	Revision as of 22:29, 17 September 2016
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Jmdonev at 01:49, 27 June 2016

2016-06-27T01:49:12Z

New page

[[Category:Done 2016-04-30]]
<onlyinclude>'''Emission scenarios''' are possible pathways that society might take in the the [[emission]] of [[greenhouse gases]] in the future. It is hard to predict what will occur in society in the next 5 years, let alone to predict the next 100. Society could continue to [[pollution|pollute]] heavily, or it could switch to minimal [[emissions]] in harnessing its [[energy]], or anything in between.</onlyinclude>

By making assumptions on how society will develop, such as how the world population will grow and how world economies interact, it is possible to estimate the world's future [[emissions]] and their effects on the [[climate]]. This is known as the Storyline Approach.

Another method is to simply assume emissions at some point in the future, and then see what steps society might need to take to get there. This approach is known as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), and will be discussed alongside the Storyline Approach.

==What determines different emission scenarios?==
:''[[driving forces for emission scenarios|main article]]''

The determining factors for emission scenarios are known as '''driving forces'''. The main forces that "drive" society's future emissions are:<ref name=ipcc1>IPCC. (Accessed May 9, 2016). "IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios" [Online], Available: https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf</ref>

*'''Population growth'''
*'''Energy use changes'''
*'''Economic development'''
*'''Technological development''' and
*'''Land use change'''

Each of the driving forces affect how society emits [[pollutant]]s, specifically greenhouse gases. If the population grows drastically, GHG emissions are expected to increase with it. If technology develops such that [[electrical generation]] becomes more [[efficiency|efficient]], then GHG emissions may be able to decrease. There are many combinations of these driving forces that can occur, thus leading to various scenarios.

Visit ''[[driving forces for emission scenarios]]'' for more information.

==Emission scenarios==

Below is a summary of the two emission scenario methods taken by the [[IPCC]] in past reports. The video at the bottom of the page discusses each in more detail, along with images and results from the different approaches. Effects of the scenarios on the climate are discussed [[climate scenario|here]].

===Storyline Approach===
The scenarios developed by the IPCC in the ''[https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pd Special Report on Emissions Scenarios]'' ('''SRES''') are a result of four different '''storylines''', titled A1, A2, B1, and B2. Each storyline assumes a distinctly different direction for future developments of driving forces. From these assumptions, each storyline differs in increasingly irreversible ways resulting in drastically different end scenarios.<ref name=ipcc1/>

The four scenarios are as follows:

#'''A1 (Global/Economic)''' - This storyline describes a future world of rapid economic growth, with a global population that peaks in the mid 2000's and declines afterwards. The A1 storyline is also split into 3 further groups: A1FI follows a "[[business as usual]]" fossil fuel intensive future, A1B is a balanced energy picture, and A1T is a non-fossil fuel future.
#'''A2 (Local/Economic)''' - The A2 storyline follows a more conservative economic world, where economic growth is more limited to smaller regions of the world. Technological change is slower in this storyline, while high fertility rates result in a booming population.
#'''B1 (Global/Environmental)''' - The B1 storyline assumes the same population growth as the A1 storyline. It differs in that it has less of a material intense society, and focuses more on clean and efficient technologies. It takes emphasis on ''global'' solutions to economic, social and environmental [[sustainability]], but with no additional climate incentives.
#'''B2 (Local/Environmental)''' - The B2 storyline focuses on a society that looks for local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population in accordance with the UN prediction, with intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid technological change compared to the B1 and A1 storylines. It focuses on local and regional solutions to environmental protection and social equity.

===Representative Concentration Pathways===

Representative Concentration Pathways were adopted in the [http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf#27 IPCC's 5th assessment report]. As mentioned before, RCPs assume end points of emissions giving a clear pathway for emissions to take in the future. How these endpoints are reached is another story, and could depend on a wide variety of driving force combinations. The year that is defined up to is 2100, chosen to give a wide range of possible outcomes.<ref name=rcp>IPCC. (Accessed June 1, 2016). ''Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)'' [Online], Available: http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/ar5_scenario_process/RCPs.html</ref>

Four pathways are set, defined by endpoint values for [[radiative forcing]] by the year 2100. The lowest emission scenario peaks in emissions by 2050, declining afterwards, therefore called RCP3PD (Peak/Decline). The highest emission scenario on the other hand is called RCP8.5, as it reaches 8.5 [[watt|W]]/[[meter|m]]<sup>2</sup> by the year 2100.<Ref name=rcp/>

In the video below Professor of Instruction [https://www.eoas.ubc.ca/about/faculty/S.Harris.html Dr. Harris]<ref>This video is used with the gracious permission of Dr. S. Harris in a private communication with Jason Donev on 2016-6-12.</ref> explains the scenarios resulting from these storylines and representative concentration pathways. Implications of each are discussed along with them, giving a nice summary of the two methods.

<html>
<iframe width="816" height="459" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TOEEbHn_es4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</html>

==References==
{{Reflist}}