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Energy>Jmdonev at 22:53, 15 May 2026

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	[[Category:Done ~~2015~~-07-24]]		[[Category:Uploaded]]
	<onlyinclude>'''Hubbert's peak''' or '''Hubbert's curve''' is a model that approximates the production rate of a [[resource]] over a period of time. Specifically, Hubbert's peak refers to the point at which this production rate is at its highest ~~with demand for~~ the resource ~~rising~~, ~~and after this~~ it ~~predicts a drop in correlation~~ to ~~the increased~~ demand~~.</onlyinclude> During this drop~~, ~~there~~ may be dramatic differences in production and demand ~~as demand continues to increase but production drops overall~~.<ref name=wolfson>Richard Wolfson. (May 29, 2015). Energy, Environment, and Climate, 2nd ed. New York, NY, U.S.A: 2012.</ref> Figure 1 shows Hubbert's predicted model compared to US oil production. Although this model can be applied to many resources, it was initially developed as a model for [[oil]] production.		[[Category:Done 2026-06-01]]
			<onlyinclude>'''Hubbert's peak''' or '''Hubbert's curve''' is a model that approximates the production rate of a [[resource]] over a period of time. Specifically, Hubbert's peak refers to the point at which this production rate is at its highest.</onlyinclude> After the peak, only half of the resource is left, which makes it harder to extract. Although demand will continue to increase, production drops overall which may cause dramatic differences in production and demand.<ref name=wolfson>Richard Wolfson. (May 29, 2015). Energy, Environment, and Climate, 2nd ed. New York, NY, U.S.A: 2012.</ref> It is important that this is only a prediction as there many factors that affect production (see the next section, "Concept" for more info). Figure 1 shows Hubbert's predicted model compared to US oil production. Although this model can be applied to many resources, it was initially developed as a model for [[oil]] production.
			[[File:UsCrudeOilVsHubberts.png\|center\|thumb\|700px\|Figure 1. Hubbert's prediction compared to actual US crude oil production, data from EIA. Note that the inclusion of Alaska in the data results in a peak that is not exactly what Hubbert predicted.<ref>EIA (2026). (Accessed May 12, 2026). ''U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil'' [Online]. Available: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS1&f=M</ref>]]

	~~[[File:crudeoilhubbert.png\|400px\|framed\|center\|Figure 1~~. Hubbert~~'s prediction compared~~ to ~~actual US crude oil production~~, ~~data from EIA~~. ~~Note~~ that the ~~inclusion~~ of ~~Alaska in~~ the ~~data results in a peak that is not exactly what~~ Hubbert predicted.<ref>~~Wikimedia Commons~~. (June 30, 2015). ''~~US Crude Oil Production~~'' ~~[Online]~~. ~~Available: https~~:/~~/en~~.~~wikipedia~~.~~org/wiki/Peak_oil#/media/File:US_Crude_Oil_Production_versus_Hubbert_Curve~~.~~png</ref>]]~~		==Concept==
			In 1956, M. King Hubbert presented a paper to the American Petroleum Institute that reflected on the potential outcome of the steady, exponential growth of [[fossil fuel]] use. Particularly, he noted that the rate of consumption of these fuels was greater than the rate at which new [[reserve]]s were being discovered. Because of this imbalance, Hubbert predicted that [[crude oil]] production would peak in the 1970s and then drop drastically over the successive years.<ref name=boyle>G.Boyle, B.Everett, S.Peake, J.Ramage. (June 3, 2015). ''Energy Systems and Sustainability: Power for a Sustainable Future'', 2nd Ed. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2012</ref> This "peak" is shown by the blue curve on Figure 1. On the graph itself, the total area under the curve is the total amount of oil extracted up to a given point in time. Given the symmetric prediction of the peak, it would mean that around 1970 half of the US oil reserves had been used up.

	=~~=Concept==~~		Hubbert's prediction proved to be mostly correct—US production peaked in 1970 with a dramatic decline after this. This decline resulted in the US to become a major oil importer.<ref name=boyle/> However, it is important to note that this is only a prediction, as there are many factors that can effect production and demand. New reserves can be found with the improvement of technology, and demand may in fact decrease if carbon-low resources become widely adopted. In fact, there were later unforeseen advancements in the production of oil in the US. Mainly the production of oil from Alaska and advancements in technologies that allowed oil to be extracted from [[unconventional resource]]s, leading to what appears to be another peak after the first. Although this growth does exist, the theory of [[peak oil]] says that there will be an ultimate peak in oil production when half of the oil reserves remain. The prediction itself was determined by explaining that there is only a finite amount of oil that exists—known as the '''[[ultimate recoverable resource]]'''—and explained that increasing rates of depletion would result in an eventual peak in the amount that could actually be produced as the resources begin to dwindle. Essentially, this ultimate recoverable resource represents the entirety of a [[McKelvey box]]—the total '''occurrence of a [[resource]]'''—which includes all undiscovered resources as well as reserves known to exist.<ref name=boyle/> Although the shape of the trend is predicted to be a curve, there are a wide number of external factors that may cause the trends to deviate from this model.
	~~In 1956~~, M.~~King Hubbert presented a paper to~~ the ~~American Petroleum Institute that reflected on~~ the ~~potential outcome~~ of the ~~steady, exponential growth~~ of [[~~fossil fuel~~]] ~~use~~. ~~Particularly~~, ~~he noted that~~ the ~~rate of consumption~~ of ~~these fuels was greater than the rate at which new~~ [[~~reserve~~]]~~s were being discovered~~. ~~Because~~ of ~~this imbalance, Hubbert predicted~~ that [[~~crude oil~~]] ~~production~~ would peak in the ~~1970s and then drop drastically over~~ the ~~successive years~~.~~<ref name=boyle>G.Boyle~~, ~~B.Everett, S.Peake, J.Ramage. (June 3, 2015).~~ ''~~Energy Systems and Sustainability: Power for~~ a ~~Sustainable Future~~''~~, 2nd Ed~~. ~~Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2012~~</~~ref~~> ~~This "peak" is shown by~~ the ~~blue curve on Figure 1. On~~ the ~~graph itself, the total area under the curve~~ is ~~the total amount of oil extracted up~~ to a ~~given point in time. Given the symmetric prediction~~ of ~~the peak, it would mean~~ that ~~around 1970 half of~~ the ~~US oil reserves had been used up~~.

	Hubbert's prediction ~~proved to be mostly~~ correct~~, as US production peaked~~ in ~~1970 with a dramatic decline after this. Because of this decline,~~ the US ~~has been forced to become~~ a ~~major oil importer.<ref name=boyle/> However~~, ~~there were later unforseen advancements in~~ the ~~production of~~ oil ~~in the US~~. ~~Mainly, the production of~~ oil ~~from Alaska~~ and ~~advancements in technologies that allowed~~ oil ~~to be extracted from unconventional resources led to what appears to be another peak after the first. Although this growth does exist, the theory of~~ [[~~peak oil~~]] ~~says that there will be~~ an ~~ultimate peak in oil production when half~~ of the oil ~~reserves remain. The prediction itself was determined by explaining that there~~ is ~~only a~~ finite ~~amount~~ of oil ~~that exists - known as the~~ '~~''ultimate recoverable resource''' - and explained that increasing rates~~ of ~~depletion would result in an eventual peak in~~ the ~~amount that could actually be produced as the resources begin to dwindle~~. ~~Essentially~~, ~~this ultimate recoverable~~ resource ~~represents the entirety of a~~ [[~~McKelvey box~~]]~~, including all undiscovered resources as well as reserves known to exist.<ref name=boyle/> Although the shape of the trend is predicted to be a curve, there are a wide number of external factors~~ that ~~may cause the trends~~ to ~~deviate from this model slightly~~.		==Long Term View==
			Although Hubbert's prediction was correct for the lower 48 states in the US (clearly Alaska had a big impact on the production), it's unclear if the Earth has hit 'peak oil'. The Earth still has extensive oil [[reserve]]s and oil [[resource]]s (please see [[reserve vs occurrence]] for an explanation of the difference). While the oil on the planet is finite, running out of oil isn't much of the problem (because there are still a lot of reserves left). However, burning these [[hydrocarbon resource]]s is causing significant [[climate change]] that will continue to get worse as we burn these fossil fuels.

	==~~Long term view~~==		==For Further Reading==
	Although Hubbert's prediction was correct for the lower 48 states in the US (clearly Alaska had a big impact on the production), it's unclear if the Earth has hit 'peak oil'. The Earth still has extensive oil [[~~reserve~~]]~~s and~~ oil [[~~resource~~]]~~s (please see~~ [[~~reserve vs resource~~]] ~~for an explanation of the difference). While the oil on the planet is finite, rather than running out of oil,~~ [[~~climate~~ change]] ~~that is happening as~~ a ~~result of human~~ [[~~fossil fuel use~~]] ~~is proving to be a much bigger problem.~~		*[[Oil]]
			*[[Peak oil]]
			*[[Reserve vs occurrence]]
			*[[Fossil fuel extraction]]
			*[[Climate change]]
			*Or explore a [[Special:Random\|random page]]

	==References==		==References==
	{{reflist}}		{{reflist}}
	~~[[Category:Uploaded]]~~

J.williams: 1 revision imported

2015-08-26T21:31:10Z

1 revision imported

← Older revision	Revision as of 21:31, 26 August 2015
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J.williams at 16:54, 12 August 2015

2015-08-12T16:54:44Z

New page

[[Category:Done 2015-07-24]]
<onlyinclude>'''Hubbert's peak''' or '''Hubbert's curve''' is a model that approximates the production rate of a [[resource]] over a period of time. Specifically, Hubbert's peak refers to the point at which this production rate is at its highest with demand for the resource rising, and after this it predicts a drop in correlation to the increased demand.</onlyinclude> During this drop, there may be dramatic differences in production and demand as demand continues to increase but production drops overall.<ref name=wolfson>Richard Wolfson. (May 29, 2015). Energy, Environment, and Climate, 2nd ed. New York, NY, U.S.A: 2012.</ref> Figure 1 shows Hubbert's predicted model compared to US oil production. Although this model can be applied to many resources, it was initially developed as a model for [[oil]] production.

[[File:crudeoilhubbert.png|400px|framed|center|Figure 1. Hubbert's prediction compared to actual US crude oil production, data from EIA. Note that the inclusion of Alaska in the data results in a peak that is not exactly what Hubbert predicted.<ref>Wikimedia Commons. (June 30, 2015). ''US Crude Oil Production'' [Online]. Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#/media/File:US_Crude_Oil_Production_versus_Hubbert_Curve.png</ref>]]

==Concept==
In 1956, M.King Hubbert presented a paper to the American Petroleum Institute that reflected on the potential outcome of the steady, exponential growth of [[fossil fuel]] use. Particularly, he noted that the rate of consumption of these fuels was greater than the rate at which new [[reserve]]s were being discovered. Because of this imbalance, Hubbert predicted that [[crude oil]] production would peak in the 1970s and then drop drastically over the successive years.<ref name=boyle>G.Boyle, B.Everett, S.Peake, J.Ramage. (June 3, 2015). ''Energy Systems and Sustainability: Power for a Sustainable Future'', 2nd Ed. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2012</ref> This "peak" is shown by the blue curve on Figure 1. On the graph itself, the total area under the curve is the total amount of oil extracted up to a given point in time. Given the symmetric prediction of the peak, it would mean that around 1970 half of the US oil reserves had been used up.

Hubbert's prediction proved to be mostly correct, as US production peaked in 1970 with a dramatic decline after this. Because of this decline, the US has been forced to become a major oil importer.<ref name=boyle/> However, there were later unforseen advancements in the production of oil in the US. Mainly, the production of oil from Alaska and advancements in technologies that allowed oil to be extracted from unconventional resources led to what appears to be another peak after the first. Although this growth does exist, the theory of [[peak oil]] says that there will be an ultimate peak in oil production when half of the oil reserves remain. The prediction itself was determined by explaining that there is only a finite amount of oil that exists - known as the '''ultimate recoverable resource''' - and explained that increasing rates of depletion would result in an eventual peak in the amount that could actually be produced as the resources begin to dwindle. Essentially, this ultimate recoverable resource represents the entirety of a [[McKelvey box]], including all undiscovered resources as well as reserves known to exist.<ref name=boyle/> Although the shape of the trend is predicted to be a curve, there are a wide number of external factors that may cause the trends to deviate from this model slightly.

==Long term view==
Although Hubbert's prediction was correct for the lower 48 states in the US (clearly Alaska had a big impact on the production), it's unclear if the Earth has hit 'peak oil'. The Earth still has extensive oil [[reserve]]s and oil [[resource]]s (please see [[reserve vs resource]] for an explanation of the difference). While the oil on the planet is finite, rather than running out of oil, [[climate change]] that is happening as a result of human [[fossil fuel use]] is proving to be a much bigger problem.

==References==
{{reflist}}
[[Category:Uploaded]]

Hubbert's peak - Revision history

Jmdonev: 1 revision imported

Energy>Jmdonev at 22:53, 15 May 2026

J.williams: 1 revision imported

J.williams at 16:54, 12 August 2015