Likelihood - Revision history

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	<onlyinclude>[[Likelihood]] is a probabilistic estimate of the occurrence of a single event or of an outcome.</onlyinclude> Likelihood may be based on statistical or modeling analyses, expert views, or other quantitative analyses.<ref name=IPCC_SREX>IPCC, 2012: Glossary of terms. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 555-564.</ref> For example, a meteorologist might say "it is likely to rain", and assign a probability of this to occur, say, 70%.		<onlyinclude>[[Likelihood]] is a probabilistic estimate of the occurrence of a single event or of an outcome.</onlyinclude> Likelihood may be based on statistical or modeling analyses, expert views, or other quantitative analyses.<ref name=IPCC_SREX>IPCC, 2012: Glossary of terms. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 555-564.</ref> For example, a meteorologist might say "it is likely to rain", and assign a probability of this to occur, say, 70%.

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	{\| class="wikitable" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; border: none;"		{\| class="wikitable" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; border: none;"
	\|+ '''Table 1. Relationship between likelihood terms and probability of ~~occurance~~'''		\|+ '''Table 1. Relationship between likelihood terms and probability of occurrence'''
	! scope="col" \| Likelihood Term		! scope="col" \| Likelihood Term
	! scope="col" \| Likelihood of occurrence		! scope="col" \| Likelihood of occurrence
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	==References==		==References==
	{{reflist}}		{{reflist}}
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<onlyinclude>[[Likelihood]] is a probabilistic estimate of the occurrence of a single event or of an outcome.</onlyinclude> Likelihood may be based on statistical or modeling analyses, expert views, or other quantitative analyses.<ref name=IPCC_SREX>IPCC, 2012: Glossary of terms. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 555-564.</ref> For example, a meteorologist might say "it is likely to rain", and assign a probability of this to occur, say, 70%.

Likelihood is often used in [[climate model]]ing and [[climate scenario|projections]] to communicate the probability of certain events occurring in the [[climate]]'s future. For instance, [[heat wave]]s are very likely to increase in both frequency and intensity under the effects of [[climate change]].<ref name=ipcc>IPCC. (Accessed May 21, 2016). ''Thermal Stress (Heat Waves, Cold Spells)'' [Online], Available: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=353</ref>

The table below shows the phrases related to likelihood often stated in reports (like the [[IPCC]] reports) and the corresponding probability associated with them.<ref>IPCC. (Accessed June 6, 2016). ''The IPCC Assessments of Climate Change and Uncertainties'' [Online], Available: https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch1s1-6.html</ref> Often the specific probabilities are the best guess of a single expert or a committee of experts, which makes the terms more useful than specific numbers.

{| class="wikitable" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; border: none;"
|+ '''Table 1. Relationship between likelihood terms and probability of occurance'''
! scope="col" | Likelihood Term
! scope="col" | Likelihood of occurrence
|-
| Virtually certain || >99% probability
|-
| Extremely likely || >95% probability
|-
| Very likely || >90% probability
|-
| Likely || >66% probability
|-
| More likely than not || >50% probability
|-
| About as likely as not || 33 to 66% probability
|-
| Unlikely || <33% probability
|-
| Very unlikely || <10% probability
|-
| Extremely unlikely || <5% probability
|-
| Exceptionally unlikely || <1% probability
|}

==References==
{{reflist}}