Reserves/production ratio
The reserves/production ratio or R/P is a method used to estimate how long reserves will last. The value represents the number of years that reserves would last if: their rate of use did not change, no more deposits were discovered, and neither technology nor price change.[1] The value of this ratio changes as the size of the reserve changes. A reserve is defined as all of the deposits of a natural resource that are economically viable to extract, with current technology and prices. If technology improves, prices increase, or discoveries are made, the reserves increase.
These R/P ratios are important when analyzing fossil fuels, as it gives a time-scale for how much longer they will last with current rates of consumption, with no further exploration. While oil is non-renewable and technically "running out", it's unlikely that humans will ever use anything close to all of the oil in the ground. Climate change is a far bigger limiting factor for future oil use than the limited amount of oil. See also the discussion of Hubbert's peak for another interesting perspective on this issue.
Inaccuracy in the Ratio
Although this number can provide an estimate of how many years a natural resource can be extracted, the numbers are only an approximation. First, this value doesn't account for any occurrence of resources that are yet to be discovered (more information on reserves and occurrences). If found, these resources could dramatically increase the amount of a fuel in known reserves. This would extend the period of time over which a resource is expected to run out. Second, the number doesn't account for potential economic or technological factors that could expand the reserve.[3] The cost of fossil fuels could rise or technologies could advance to the point that previously unrecoverable resources could be mined. This would increase the value of the R/P ratio. Finally, R/P ratios do not take into count the changing fossil fuel consumption rates. The estimates likely represent time frames that are too long, meaning if a rise in consumption is accounted for, the R/P ratio should in fact be lower. However, fossil fuel consumption rates could also drop, as climate change forces us to find alternative sources of energy.
For Further Reading
- Reserve vs occurrence
- Reserve
- Fossil fuel
- Hubbert's peak
- Renewable and sustainable energy
- Or explore a random page
References
- ↑ G.Boyle, B.Everett, S.Peake, J.Ramage. (June 15, 2015). Energy Systems and Sustainability: Power for a Sustainable Future, 2nd Ed. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2012
- ↑ BP (2021). Statistical Review of World Energy. Available: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf
- ↑ Richard Wolfson. (June 18, 2015). Energy, Environment, and Climate, 2nd ed. New York, NY, U.S.A: 2012.