Peak oil: Difference between revisions
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[[File:480px-Texas_Oil_Production_1935_to_2005.png|400px|framed|right|Figure 1. In some places, the peak point for oil production is very obvious. This is the case in the above graph of oil production in Texas.<ref>Wikimedia Commons. (June 30, 2015). ''Texas Oil Production'' [Online]. Available: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Texas_Oil_Production_1935_to_2005.png#/media/File:Texas_Oil_Production_1935_to_2005.png</ref>]] | [[File:480px-Texas_Oil_Production_1935_to_2005.png|400px|framed|right|Figure 1. In some places, the peak point for oil production is very obvious. This is the case in the above graph of oil production in Texas.<ref>Wikimedia Commons. (June 30, 2015). ''Texas Oil Production'' [Online]. Available: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Texas_Oil_Production_1935_to_2005.png#/media/File:Texas_Oil_Production_1935_to_2005.png</ref>]] | ||
<onlyinclude>'''Peak oil''' is the predicted event, based off of the theory of [[Hubbert's peak]], when the maximum rate of extraction and production of [[oil]] is reached. After this point, production will fall continually over time.</onlyinclude><ref>Financial Times. (June 29, 2015). ''Definition of Peak Oil'' [Online]. Available: http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=peak-oil</ref> This peak exists for oil because | <onlyinclude>'''Peak oil''' is the predicted event, based off of the theory of [[Hubbert's peak]], when the maximum rate of extraction and production of [[oil]] is reached. After this point, production will fall continually over time.</onlyinclude><ref>Financial Times. (June 29, 2015). ''Definition of Peak Oil'' [Online]. Available: http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=peak-oil</ref> This peak exists for oil because the rate of oil being used wants to continue to grow, while simultaneously, the overall amount of oil is depleted. Although this event is frequently discussed in terms of oil as a [[resource]], there exists a peak point for all non-renewable resources (including resources that have little to do with [[energy]] like naturally occurring diamonds or gold). Overall, the production of a finite resource tends to follow a bell shaped curve, with the peak occurring where around half of the resource has been extracted. In theory, this holds true for a single well, oil field, region, and even the world.<ref name="RE1">Peak Oil. (June 30, 2015). ''Peak Oil News'' [Online]. Available: http://peakoil.com/what-is-peak-oil</ref> Note that real production rates are far bumpier than the bell shaped curves produced by simple theories. | ||
The prediction made by Hubbert was mostly correct, even with new supplies from Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico | The prediction made by Hubbert was mostly correct, even with new supplies from Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. Production of oil in the United States initially peaked around 1970 (with a slight jump with production of oil in Alaska).<ref name=boyle>G.Boyle, B.Everett, S.Peake, J.Ramage. (June 30, 2015). ''Energy Systems and Sustainability: Power for a Sustainable Future'', 2nd Ed. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2012</ref> These predictions were made for the United States, but similar predictions can be applied worldwide. However, modelling the entire world and making predictions is a difficult task as many companies don't share the amount of oil in their reserves. | ||
At this point, the bigger concern is for the environmental consequences of [[climate change]] from [[combustion|burning]] this oil than actually running out of oil | At this point, the bigger concern is for the environmental consequences of [[climate change]] from [[combustion|burning]] this oil than actually running out of oil. See [[Climate change consequences on rainforests|consequences of climate change]] for more information on why the [[climate]] consequences are so disconcerting. | ||
==Unconventional Sources== | ==Unconventional Sources== | ||
[[File:World_Oil_Production.png | [[File:World_Oil_Production.png|left|Figure 2. Worldwide production of oil has appeared to peak in the past, but advancements in technology and the discovery of new reserves has prevented a peak that has lasted too long. However, this world production will eventually peak.<ref>Wikimedia Commons. (June 30, 2015). ''World Oil Production'' [Online]. Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_Oil_Production.png</ref>|thumb|380x380px]] | ||
One of the biggest issues with peak oil is that currently there is no | One of the biggest issues with peak oil is that currently there is no solution to the problem, of demanding more oil than can be supplied. Many argue that [[unconventional resource|unconventional sources of oil]] will be the answer to peak oil because of the enormous [[reserve]]s of this unconventional oil worldwide. However, the issue with unconventional oil is that it can be more expensive, time-consuming, and difficult to extract this oil. | ||
Through enhanced oil recovery, it is possible to obtain more oil out of existing [[oil and gas reservoir|reservoirs]]. Additionally, extraction of oil from [[oil sands]] is becoming more and more prominent. The advancement of technologies that allow oil to be extracted in these ways could work to increase the size of oil reserves.<ref name=boyle/> Additionally, there is | Through enhanced oil recovery, it is possible to obtain more oil out of existing [[oil and gas reservoir|reservoirs]]. Additionally, extraction of oil from [[oil sands]] is becoming more and more prominent. The advancement of technologies that allow oil to be extracted in these ways could work to increase the size of oil reserves.<ref name=boyle/> Additionally, there is potential for synthetic gas-to-liquids fuels and [[coal]]-to-liquids fuels that could provide an answer to peak oil. | ||
== Peak Supply versus Peak Demand == | |||
[[File:Global-oil-demand-growth-by-sector-2021-2024 (1).png|right|thumb|420px|Figure 3. Global oil demand growth by sector, 2021-2024. IEA. Licence: CC BY 4.0 <ref>IEA (2025), ''Global oil demand growth by sector, 2021-2024'', IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-oil-demand-growth-by-sector-2021-2024-2, Licence: CC BY 4.0</ref>]] | |||
Original peak oil predictions of the 1990s and 2000s didn't take into account technological innovation, reserve growth, or price-driven discovery. The supply of oil worldwide doesn't seem to be peaking, "question is no longer 'when will we run out of oil?' but rather 'when will the world stop wanting oil?'"<ref name=":0">Shelll Energy Insights (2026). (Accessed May 13, 2026). ''Peak Oil Explained: From Hubbert's Curve to the Demand Peak Debate'' [Online]. Available: https://shelllgas.com/articles/peak-oil-explained.html</ref> | |||
The forces driving peak demand are different than the geological constraints of supply. Transportation uses roughly 60% of global oil, an electric vehicle adoption is more prevalent with countries mandating phase-outs of internal combustion engines. Renewable energy is replacing oil in power energy as it becomes more cost-accessible. Fuel efficiency has improved. Climate policy and carbon regulations increases the price of oil and economically encourages efficiency and electrification.<ref name=":0" /> | |||
Forecasters predict different timings for the oil demand peak, from demand already peaking in 2023 to demand growing into the 2030s.<ref name=":0" /> | |||
==For Further Reading== | |||
*[[Reserve vs occurrence]] | |||
*[[Reserve]] | |||
*[[Fossil fuel]] | |||
*[[Hubbert's peak]] | |||
*[[Renewable and sustainable energy]] | |||
*Or explore a [[Special:Random|random page]] | |||
==References== | ==References== | ||
{{reflist}} | {{reflist}} | ||
[[Category:Uploaded]] | [[Category:Uploaded]] | ||
Revision as of 23:01, 15 May 2026
Peak oil is the predicted event, based off of the theory of Hubbert's peak, when the maximum rate of extraction and production of oil is reached. After this point, production will fall continually over time.[2] This peak exists for oil because the rate of oil being used wants to continue to grow, while simultaneously, the overall amount of oil is depleted. Although this event is frequently discussed in terms of oil as a resource, there exists a peak point for all non-renewable resources (including resources that have little to do with energy like naturally occurring diamonds or gold). Overall, the production of a finite resource tends to follow a bell shaped curve, with the peak occurring where around half of the resource has been extracted. In theory, this holds true for a single well, oil field, region, and even the world.[3] Note that real production rates are far bumpier than the bell shaped curves produced by simple theories.
The prediction made by Hubbert was mostly correct, even with new supplies from Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. Production of oil in the United States initially peaked around 1970 (with a slight jump with production of oil in Alaska).[4] These predictions were made for the United States, but similar predictions can be applied worldwide. However, modelling the entire world and making predictions is a difficult task as many companies don't share the amount of oil in their reserves.
At this point, the bigger concern is for the environmental consequences of climate change from burning this oil than actually running out of oil. See consequences of climate change for more information on why the climate consequences are so disconcerting.
Unconventional Sources
One of the biggest issues with peak oil is that currently there is no solution to the problem, of demanding more oil than can be supplied. Many argue that unconventional sources of oil will be the answer to peak oil because of the enormous reserves of this unconventional oil worldwide. However, the issue with unconventional oil is that it can be more expensive, time-consuming, and difficult to extract this oil.
Through enhanced oil recovery, it is possible to obtain more oil out of existing reservoirs. Additionally, extraction of oil from oil sands is becoming more and more prominent. The advancement of technologies that allow oil to be extracted in these ways could work to increase the size of oil reserves.[4] Additionally, there is potential for synthetic gas-to-liquids fuels and coal-to-liquids fuels that could provide an answer to peak oil.
Peak Supply versus Peak Demand
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Original peak oil predictions of the 1990s and 2000s didn't take into account technological innovation, reserve growth, or price-driven discovery. The supply of oil worldwide doesn't seem to be peaking, "question is no longer 'when will we run out of oil?' but rather 'when will the world stop wanting oil?'"[7]
The forces driving peak demand are different than the geological constraints of supply. Transportation uses roughly 60% of global oil, an electric vehicle adoption is more prevalent with countries mandating phase-outs of internal combustion engines. Renewable energy is replacing oil in power energy as it becomes more cost-accessible. Fuel efficiency has improved. Climate policy and carbon regulations increases the price of oil and economically encourages efficiency and electrification.[7]
Forecasters predict different timings for the oil demand peak, from demand already peaking in 2023 to demand growing into the 2030s.[7]
For Further Reading
- Reserve vs occurrence
- Reserve
- Fossil fuel
- Hubbert's peak
- Renewable and sustainable energy
- Or explore a random page
References
- ↑ Wikimedia Commons. (June 30, 2015). Texas Oil Production [Online]. Available: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Texas_Oil_Production_1935_to_2005.png#/media/File:Texas_Oil_Production_1935_to_2005.png
- ↑ Financial Times. (June 29, 2015). Definition of Peak Oil [Online]. Available: http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=peak-oil
- ↑ Peak Oil. (June 30, 2015). Peak Oil News [Online]. Available: http://peakoil.com/what-is-peak-oil
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 G.Boyle, B.Everett, S.Peake, J.Ramage. (June 30, 2015). Energy Systems and Sustainability: Power for a Sustainable Future, 2nd Ed. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2012
- ↑ Wikimedia Commons. (June 30, 2015). World Oil Production [Online]. Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_Oil_Production.png
- ↑ IEA (2025), Global oil demand growth by sector, 2021-2024, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-oil-demand-growth-by-sector-2021-2024-2, Licence: CC BY 4.0
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 Shelll Energy Insights (2026). (Accessed May 13, 2026). Peak Oil Explained: From Hubbert's Curve to the Demand Peak Debate [Online]. Available: https://shelllgas.com/articles/peak-oil-explained.html
