Driving forces for emission scenarios

Driving forces for emission scenarios are the factors that influence how society will emit greenhouse gases in the future. There are a few main driving forces for emission scenarios, each of which impact greenhouse gas emissions. Emission scenarios take into account each driving force in different ways, resulting in unique scenarios of the Earth's future.

These driving forces are also factors in the Kaya identity, a metric used to determine carbon emissions. The driving forces are:

1. Energy use - Currently the world gets most of its energy from fossil fuels, with a smaller mix of nuclear power and renewable energy. Different emission storylines follow the path of high fossil fuel use, while others assume minimal fossil fuel use.
2. Economic development - The economy fluctuates on a daily basis, however general assumptions can be made for the long term future. One of which that is used in the scenarios is the narrowing of income differences among the world's regions. Since energy-use worldwide is affected largely by the economy, GHG emissions are as well.
3. Technological development - Within the next 100 years there is no telling where technology will be. Technological advancements increase efficiency of processes, and could potentially result in lower GHG emissions depending on other factors.
4. Population growth - There are many models of the world's future population, varying from 8 billion people to over 15 billion people by the year 2100. The most widely accepted models place the world population at just above 10 billion people by this time. In Figure 1: while per capita emissions (t CO₂ eq) are relatively stable, total emissions (Mt CO₂ eq) are on a steady rise because of global population growth. To learn more about scenarios, see emission scenario.
   

   Figure 1. Global total greenhouse gas emissions and per capita greenhouse gas emissions, 1990 to 2022. Between 2005 and 2022, global GHG emissions increased by 24.2%, from 39,300 to 48,824 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

For Further Reading

• Emission scenario
• Energy use per person
• Economy
• Efficiency
• Population replacement rate
• Or explore a random page